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Illustration: Liu Rui/GTIn 2008, China surpassed Japan as the largest foreign lender to the US. Over the ensuing five years and a half through July 2013, China has purchased $853 billion more in US Treasuries than Japan. China's share of publicly held government debt in the US soared from 1.8 percent in 2000 to 10.7 percent by mid-2013.China's bet on US Treasuries is a key aspect of the codependency that binds the world's two largest economies together. It works for China because it anchors the stability of the yuan and limits its appreciation against the dollar.While the yuan has risen some 35 percent versus the greenback since July 2005, the appreciation would have undoubtedly been greater in light of China's large current account surpluses and rapidly expanding foreign exchange reserves.Recycling those reserves, which now total nearly $3.7 trillion, into dollar-denominated assets has enabled China to manage yuan appreciation with an eye toward maintaining its competitiveness and sustaining its export-led growth strategy.China's bet on US Treasuries has also worked quite well for the US. It has provided an increasingly important source of external funding that a saving-short US economy has so desperately needed. By doing so, Chinese demand for US Treasuries has also limited upward pressures on longer-term US interest rates, possibly by an entire percentage point.That, in turn, has provided valuation support for other asset markets that buttressed US domestic demand, especially private consumption. And China's support for US aggregate demand has provided impetus to the external underpinnings of its export machine. The mutual benefits of codependency are no longer sustainable. Of the two nations, China has been first to figure this out. The rebalancing of an unbalanced Chinese economy is a central feature of the 12th Five-year Plan (2011-15). With that rebalancing, a consumer-led China will draw down its surplus saving and reduce its accumulation of foreign exchange reserves. And that will have the important effect of curtailing China's demand for dollar-denominated assets, especially US Treasuries. That will put further upward pressure on the yuan, but that outcome is actually quite consistent with an internal demand impetus to Chinese economic growth that would benefit from a stronger currency.The debt crisis in Washington underscores the urgency of this shift in China's growth strategy. Why should China stay on a path that leads a further sharp accumulation of tainted assets?In the end, it boils down to an objective exercise in risk-adjusted portfolio management. Washington's debt crisis changes the risk calculus. While there is still a strong case to be made that the US will not default on its sovereign debt, that case is weaker today than it was a year ago, let alone five years ago. That means there is now a new element of the risk in the once riskless asset. In that context, China's official asset managers, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), need to take their acronym seriously and draw up a contingency plan for reducing their massive overweight in dollar-denominated securities. Of course, SAFE cannot simply push a button and shift the reserve portfolio from dollars to other currencies and hard assets. Any such actions would have important consequences for the real economy.It is critically important for the new Chinese leadership team to realize that it no longer has time on its side in contemplating the dual shifts in its economic structure and its portfolio of foreign exchange reserves. Self-healing of the ideological polarization of a dysfunctional US government is highly unlikely.But the Washington budget and debt fiasco could well be the tipping point for China's realization of the perils of staying with an old growth model for too long. The upcoming Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee provides China's new leaders with an important opportunity to deliver on the specifics of a comprehensive reform and rebalancing strategy. The message from a dysfunctional Washington is that Beijing cannot afford to squander this opportunity.The author is a faculty member at Yale University and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia. ugg cove boots In the past the UN has warned that Nepal was vulnerable, given the large number of migrating birds. http://www.memphiskw.com/team.php?id=239
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After a preliminary deal on Iran's nuclear program was reached in Geneva early Sunday, the next six months will be crucial as the West will monitor Tehran's progress in halting its controversial nuclear program, US experts said.Experts and US officials said the agreement, which involves six world powers -- Britain, China, France, Russia, the United States and Germany (P5+1) -- represents the first step in curbing Iran's controversial nuclear program in exchange for easing the sanctions that have crippled the Islamic republic's economy."This deal is an important and encouraging first step," Wayne White, former deputy director of the US State Department's Middle East Intelligence Office, told Xinhua.In the deal, Iran agrees to a six-month halt of its nuclear program while talks will continue to seal a final agreement and international observers monitor Iran's nuclear sites. But US officials have warned that any divergence by Iran will cause the US to scrap the deal and impose harsher sanctions."This has a six month expiration date on it," said a White House official late Saturday night in a phone call with reporters including Xinhua.Though many experts and US officials have expressed optimism on the deal, there remain concerns."My concern is that tremendous pressure will be placed on the Obama administration by the US Congress to make demands upon Iran in the next phase of negotiations -- most notably the total cessation of enrichment -- that would be deal-breakers preventing a follow on and final accord," White said. "That is why prompt, problem-free Iranian implementation of every aspect of the interim agreement is so critical to rebuilding Iran's credibility as a negotiating partner."The deal includes commitments by Iran to halt enrichment uranium above 5 percent, neutralization of its stockpile of near-20 percent uranium, and a commitment to stop activities at the Arak reactor facility.In return, the P5+1 is to provide limited, temporary, targeted and reversible sanctions relief, estimated at 7 billion US dollars, while maintaining the vast bulk of sanctions, including those placed on oil, finance and banking. Failure to meet those commitments will mean revoking sanctions relief, the White House said Saturday."Critics -- particularly back here in the US and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu -- have been quick to point out that Iranian enrichment will not cease during the coming six months, while ignoring the requirements in the agreement that prevent any of that enrichment to progress toward nuclear weapon's grade uranium," White said."In fact, Iran has agreed to downgrade the substantial stock of 20 percent enriched nuclear fuel it now has that could be enriched to nuclear weapons grade in ways that would render such higher enrichment impossible," White said.The next near-term steps will be testing whether Iran complies with its commitments. On the US side, the Obama administration will have a tough slog in convincing both parties in Congress that the arrangement will be sufficient to prevent Iran from advancing its nuclear program, White said.Just hours after the deal, Chairman of the US House Foreign Affairs Committee Ed Royce on Saturday expressed his concerns."I have serious concerns that this agreement does not meet the standards necessary to protect the United States and our allies," the Republican said in a statement. "Instead of rolling back Iran's program, Tehran would be able to keep the key elements of its nuclear weapons-making capability. Yet we are the ones doing the dismantling - relieving Iran of the sanctions pressure built up over years."Echoing those thoughts, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday that sanctions amounted to the best chance for a peaceful solution and that loosening the screws on Tehran in exchange for what he billed as minor concessions endangers Israel and other nations.Calling the deal a "historical mistake," Netanyahu said Israel would not be bound by its terms, adding that Iran has said in the past it would wipe Israel off the map. boots ugg, ugg slippers men For Women, Save Off 71%, Buy cheap sales on uggs for women And men sale online, Top Quality And Free Shipping. rates of purchasing are doubling year after year.â€ťServices such as TNT
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